TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #77292
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
8/5/2009 4:06:15 PM
"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.
The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."
P64 HOW WE DECIDE
http://residentialpropertyanalytics.blogspot.com/2009/04/humans-are-wired-to-see-patterns-where.html
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Can you say "BUY ZONE", "FADING THE GAP" or "RUN FOREST, RUN"?
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #77293
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
8/5/2009 4:09:51 PM
cr0cop
7/10/2009 8:29:44 PM
hey TheRumpledOne does the MTC strategy work on the forex, or do you have any good strategies for the forex? or what do you think is the best material to study to learn to trade forex?
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Yes, the Buy Zone works very well in Forex. Yes, I have a few good strategies for Forex.
To learn how to trade Forex or anything else, do not read any trading books at all. Read psychology books like "How We Decide", "Trading in the Zone", "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan".
Reading trading books is like being outsmarted by a rat...LOL!!
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stratiG
147 posts
msg #77294
- Ignore stratiG |
8/5/2009 4:16:31 PM
8/5/2009 4:06:15 PM
"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.
The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."
P64 HOW WE DECIDE
===================
Can you say "BUY ZONE", "FADING THE GAP" or "RUN FOREST, RUN"?
============================================================================
I can't stop laughing.....LMAO
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Eman93
4,750 posts
msg #77296
- Ignore Eman93 |
8/5/2009 6:31:10 PM
I am smarter than the rat ...........LMFAO
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #77305
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
8/6/2009 3:02:17 AM
"Think about the stock market, which is a classic example of a "random walk," since the past movement of any particular stock cannot be used to predict its future movement. The inherent randomness of the market was first proposed by the economist Eugene Fama, in the early 1960's. Fama looked at decades of stock market data in order to prove that no amount of knowledge or rational analysis could help you figure out what would happen next. All of the esoteric tools used by investors to make sense of the market were pure nonsense. Wall Street was like a slot machine."
Pg 67 - HOW WE DECIDE
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #77395
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
8/9/2009 8:07:09 PM
http://ezinearticles.com/?Maximize-Expectancy,-Not-Accuracy,-in-Your-Trading-System&id=2675712
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sync
15 posts
msg #77485
- Ignore sync |
8/12/2009 12:09:52 PM
Are The Buy Zone and Milk The Cows the same thing?
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stratiG
147 posts
msg #77487
- Ignore stratiG
modified |
8/12/2009 2:08:58 PM
Buy Zones = system
MTC = stocks that work with the system
They can't work without each other.
Have Fun!!
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #77493
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
8/12/2009 3:36:13 PM
Buy Zone and Milk The Cows are the same system.
The "cows" are the stocks that work best with the system.
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sync
15 posts
msg #77495
- Ignore sync
modified |
8/12/2009 4:11:26 PM
TRO: What software do you use for doing intraday statistics?
Where can I get historical tick data for stocks and forex?
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