| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! | << 1 ... 69 70 71 72 73 ... 105 >>Post Follow-up |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #81453 - Ignore TheRumpledOne modified |
10/20/2009 4:41:51 PM Did you go to Yale? Patterns exist. But what happens next is random. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT. I am NOT screening for stats. I am producing stats for stocks that meet certain criteria. But plenty of people are making money using my filters, indicators, methods, systems, etc... And MAKING MONEY IS ALL THAT MATTERS IN TRADING. |
| SFMc01 358 posts msg #81490 - Ignore SFMc01 |
10/21/2009 10:08:28 AM TRO: You state "I have been posting the RAT REVERSAL trade for a couple of weeks now." I have not been following the forum recently, but, I put "RAT REVERSAL" in search and nothing turned up except this post. Respectfully, could you give me further directions as to where to look? ... date and posting? Thank you. Steve |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #81500 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/21/2009 1:27:41 PM Google it - it shows up in several Forex-related sites. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #81569 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/22/2009 6:49:17 PM WWW.KRESLIK.COM is where I post my code, systems, methods, etc... |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #81575 - Ignore Eman93 |
10/22/2009 10:18:17 PM Patterns exist. But what happens next is random. ============================================= Each roll of a pair of dice is random but the probabilty of getting a 7 is higher than any other pair. So what is the probabilty of RIMM filling on a gap down? |
| four 5,087 posts msg #81715 - Ignore four modified |
10/25/2009 9:59:00 AM
Is this correct? ...The items noted on your image (credit:TheRumpledOne). |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #81717 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/25/2009 10:39:21 AM Patterns exist. But what happens next is random. ============================================= Each roll of a pair of dice is random but the probabilty of getting a 7 is higher than any other pair. So what is the probabilty of RIMM filling on a gap down? +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ In the last 100 days, RIMM has gapped up 65 times (and filled that gap 44 of those 65 days) and has gapped down 35 times (filling that gap only 20 times) Probability of a gap up = 65% Probability of filling = 67.7% (44/65) Probability of a gap down = 35% Probability of filling = 57.1% (20/35) Probability of a gap in either direction = 90% Probability of filling = 71.1% (64/90) |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #81719 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/25/2009 11:34:55 AM Each roll of a pair of dice is random but the probabilty of getting a 7 is higher than any other pair. So what is the probabilty of RIMM filling on a gap down? ========================== There is NO probability when it comes to trading. There are only statistics. Statistics are concerned with the past. Probability is concerned with the future. You can predict based on statistics but it is NOT the same as probability. The difference is subtle but you have to understand the difference exists. With dice, the probability never changes. You can, based on statistics, say that RIMM filled the gap X% of the time over the last N days. But that is not the same as probability. |
| Walid 130 posts msg #81737 - Ignore Walid |
10/25/2009 8:14:24 PM “Patterns exist. But what happens next is random” Well, I have to disagree. Patterns add a degree of predictability of the subsequent direction of the price move. What happens next is “uncertain” that is for sure but not random. A random process has no favorable outcome. **************************************************** There is NO probability when it comes to trading. There are only statistics. Statistics are concerned with the past. Probability is concerned with the future. You can predict based on statistics but it is NOT the same as probability. The difference is subtle but you have to understand the difference exists. **************************************************** Again, I have to disagree. I can’t find a sold scientific ground for any of the above mentioned claims. The probability theory distinguishes between to different type of probabilities, Statistical probability and Inductive probability. Statistical probability is the relative frequency with which an event occurs in the long run. The Inductive probability is the degree of belief which it is reasonable to place in a proposition on given evidence. Read Professor M.G. Bulmer for more info. The above two definitions are also known as Frequentists versus Bayesian interpretation of probability. See Wikipedia, Probability Technical analysis in general is all about statistical probability. As it appears very clear from the name “statistical probability”, statistical analysis is a method of determining a “statistically significant correlation” between an event and a certain outcome. In other words, using statistical methods to determine a “more probable” outcome based on statistical analysis. This goes strongly against all of your claims above. Patterns do exist and what happens next – based on statistical probability analysis – is whatever that pattern predicts with frequency x of the times. Because we know that the outcome is only statistically probable and not certain, we protect ourselves against the probability that we are wrong (1- P(we are right)) by using protective stops. As we all know, the simple idea is that if you follow the pattern (be it is your own or a widely accepted one) you will be right most of the times and with good money management skills, your gain will away outweighs losses you have incurred when the price did actually move to the other direction. But the word “most” in the last phrase is a direct result of the high probability outcome predicted by the pattern in question. How can this be consistent with you claim “there is NO probability when it comes to trading, there is only statistics”? The way I see it, there is only probability when it comes to trading. Statistical analysis is our tool to determine such probability. What is more confusing is that it seems as if you are arguing against your own work. Your work – what you call it statistical – is no more than counting the frequency by which a certain event happens over a relatively long period of time. How many times AAPL filled the opening gap over the past 100 days? How many x happened over the y past days? x/y in these questions is called statistical probability analysis. In regards to **************************************************** Statistics are concerned with the past. Probability is concerned with the future. **************************************************** I was under the impression that Regression is a statistical method to forecast the future based on the past behavior of the data within certain limits and degree of confidence. No? Regards, |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #81741 - Ignore Eman93 |
10/25/2009 10:25:15 PM Walid where you been? I agree......statistical probabilty is used everywhere to try too predict the future......from weather to baseball. The major drawback SF has is it lack of statistical tools and pattern recogniton tools......... for example you could use 2006 data to predict 2007 data run your program and see how you did. You could have a much better picture of what is happening. Chart patterns seem more predictabel than indicators...IMOH no way to tell with the limited tools here. |
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