Billirider321
62 posts
msg #110838
- Ignore Billirider321 |
2/1/2013 1:11:56 AM
Hi Kevin,
Have you considered not trading medical/health care related stock as they are kind of gamble. Example CLSN
has droped 70 percent today we need to stay clear of such stock. Whats your thought.
On other note are you using automated trading through prodigio or manually entering the trades.
Thanks
Bill
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Bladerunners
5 posts
msg #110839
- Ignore Bladerunners
modified |
2/1/2013 6:46:22 AM
Wouldn't want to be holding a biotech going into an important announcement -----------> CLSN down 82% because of phase 3 FDA failure.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #110840
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
2/1/2013 8:27:50 AM
Like any technical system, it all boils down to statistics. Owning CLSN was fine last week when it made you money. The system "dodged that bullet", but there is no way NOT to take some hits. The issue with CLSN could just easily been an 80% gain.
You could try adding "Not Industry(Medical - Biomedical)" to exclude stocks like CLSN, but you are also excluding 175 other candidates that might make good money.
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Bladerunners
5 posts
msg #110865
- Ignore Bladerunners |
2/1/2013 11:24:36 AM
VMM filled @ 16.35
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shainadir
25 posts
msg #110869
- Ignore shainadir
modified |
2/1/2013 11:40:18 AM
Anyone else in AVG? Moved fast this morning, got filled at 12.91. Looking for target of 13.70.
Edit- closed position at average price of 13.25. Dont want to hold anything over weekend.
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dcsnowden
52 posts
msg #110885
- Ignore dcsnowden |
2/1/2013 4:44:08 PM
K.....looking back thru the backtesting....were there any other 50 or 75% hits like CLSN?....and if so...were they also pharma related or some other group or pattern we could be made aware of in an attempt to eliminate potential risk.... HALO also looking a bit dicey....THX in advance
DCS
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #110886
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
2/1/2013 6:16:44 PM
DCS - remember that CLSN crushed it for this system. In on 1/18 at $6.87, and out on 1/23 at the open price of $7.95 (the day after the RSI(2) crossed above 55). That made CLSN a profitable trade to the tune of 15.7% before commissions.
I understand folk's concern here but that is a concern for ANY system, and it only gets more likely the longer you are in the trade. This is a quick in and out for the most part, so the risk is marginal.
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evo34
82 posts
msg #110887
- Ignore evo34 |
2/1/2013 6:48:47 PM
FYI -- Adding "Not Industry(Medical - Biomedical)" doesn't seem to work; in fact, it selects that industry rather than excluding it. Does anyone know how to accomplish the exclusion of an industry?
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compound_gains
225 posts
msg #110896
- Ignore compound_gains
modified |
2/2/2013 9:01:22 AM
I think you'll find that there is no simple way to exclude "medical - biomedical" as an industry and the workarounds (industry counts, industry number counts, etc.) don't seem to work with "medical - biomedical." But you already have the easiest solution. In Kevin's filter he has "add column industry." You're only dealing with a handful of stocks so if you see a stock in an industry you don't like, just skip it.
That being said, I think you'll find if you back check that "medical - biomedical" stocks account for a lot of the entries with this filter...it's simply their volatility...so you've changed the whole system if you exclude them.
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evo34
82 posts
msg #110897
- Ignore evo34 |
2/2/2013 3:17:42 PM
Thanks for the info. The main reason to have an industry excluded is to be able to backtest a system without it included. I'd be pretty shocked if this system's returns were driven significantly by medical/drug stocks. I personally avoid these stocks in short-term trading for the same reason I avoid stocks about to announce earnings: your risk in these individual trades will be much, much higher than the avg. risk of a trade in the system. Blindly sizing these ultra-high volatility trades as large as you do normal (for the system) trades will result in higher risk of bankroll ruin than you might think. If you reduce the size of all your trades to handle this, you'll be leaving money on the table (going too small on low-risk trades).
Obviously, these are my opinions, and others can trade how they see fit. In any case, I just wish SF would add functionality to omit industries (as well as ADRs, and closed end funds). Would be helpful for a lot of us I believe.
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